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• `Current reports of the three-day leak on Total`s wellhead platform at the Elgin gas field suggest this unfolding incident is not as serious as BP`s Deepwater Horizon accident in 2010. Even in the event of the shutdown of the whole Elgin field, we believe Total is likely to retain its `AA` credit rating as it has the cash resources to more than cover any associated costs,`` said Fitch, in a report. It further said the following:

• The Elgin leak is a surface gas leak rather than an underwater oil leak, making its potential for environmental damage far lower than in the Deepwater Horizon case. These sorts of accidents are often difficult to resolve and unpredictable; nonetheless, in our view the potential is low for this leak to escalate to a crisis on the scale of Deepwater Horizon. Total`s preliminary assessment suggests there has been no significant impact on the environment and the use of dispersants has not been considered.

• We have not factored into the company`s ratings any catastrophic accident on the platform resulting in an explosion, or a dramatic worsening of the current situation. However, we have considered a `worse-than-base-case` scenario where Total may have to shut down the Elgin field to stop the gas leak. This would imply the loss of a producing field that is worth, in net present value terms, EUR 5.7 billion according to third party valuations. Were the field to become permanently unusable it would cost Total EUR 2.6 billion its share in Elgin - and the company might have to compensate its partners for the remaining EUR 3.1 billion.

• This incident underlines that oil and gas majors must maintain strong liquidity in what is a risky business. Total had around EUR 14 billion in cash on balance sheet at December 2011 and about EUR 10 billion in available unused credit lines.

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